A New Era of War: Shadow Operations and The Rise of Nationalism

This is part two of a 3-part series on the future of warfare. See part one here. 

Introduction

We have been fighting wars for millenia. Constantly. From the Egyptians to the Greeks to the Romans to the middle age feudal nations. We have gone through countless distinct regimes, some lasting only a few years, others centuries – and most falling, in one way or another, through war. In ancient Greece, it was the time of the great city-states: Athens, Sparta, Thebes, Syracuse, and many more. Inspired by competition, expansion or political dominance, war was a very common thing. There were large, prolonged wars such as the Peloponnesian Wars, or the Persian Wars, but it was the minor ones that were a common occurrence. War was seasonal – in the summer and spring, almost every year, the soldiers would go off in military campaigns, and economies were adjusted to this, running on their own, often self-sufficient. Later, in the times of the feudal nations, economies were not just accustomed to war, but intrinsically linked to it. Each nation had a monarch, who owned all the land. The monarch would distribute his land to nobles in return for the service of their knights, who would be given land by the nobles. The peasantry would be given the right to live on the land, in return for giving a tax of their economic production – agricultural and livestock products, as well as baskets, pottery, etc – to the lord of the land. Yet in modern times we have gone through a change, one that has pushed us away from this norm, and into a more complex, and in many ways fragile, world.

Over time, the power of feudal systems began to decline, with colonialism playing a highly influential role. Monarchs, in nations like France and England, gained more power, unifying their countries under nationalism. This nationalism was invested into colonial expansion, specialising resource extraction to specific areas and thus creating an economy more and more focused on trade. This continued significantly over the subsequent centuries, and was followed up by the industrial revolution. Raw materials grew in demand, and factory products became more widespread. Furthermore, the people began their mass movement from farms to industrial cities – finalising the shift from agrarian and feudal economies to industrial capitalist economies ever more centralised on specialised trade. As this happened, we moved into the age of the world wars. Ironically, it was imperialism that originally sparked these wars but, by the end of the wars, Europe was left weak and nationalism sparked independence among colonial countries – leading to the end of imperialism. Countries could no longer rely on imperialism, and the rising size and complexity of economies worldwide, fueled by the growing prominence of capitalist democracies in the west, created a new focus for the world. This focus was economic prosperity, and globalisation soon emerged as the dominant model.

Globalism vs Nationalism

Yet again the world is moving into a great shift – globalisation was reactionary, and it seems unlikely that it will last. It does not take much of a look around to see the trend of nationalism growing all across the world. The rise of the hard right has emerged throughout the west, with far-right parties gaining prominence in Austria, Hungary and Germany, as well as many other countries across Europe, all moving further and further away from the EU, and, of particular importance, the monumental rise of Donald Trump and Elon Musk in the USA. Trump has announced the imposition of tariffs on China, Mexico, Canada, the EU, and Australia – sparking an increase in nationalism and protectionism worldwide. Furthermore, countries like Russia, with their invasion of Ukraine, and China, with their aim to take over Taiwan, have made open their interest in imperialism and national dominance – sparking further hostilities between the east and west, much of which is being reflected in the Iran-Israel conflicts. The shift has already begun, but what will it look like?

Our world is very rapidly approaching the point of no return. If we are to go back to the world of peace and globalisation that we’ve grown accustomed to, it is now or never. Yet we are clearly not turning back – nationalism is not slowing down, it is growing more and more rapidly. Our world is dividing ever more, and individual nations are becoming radicalised further and further. Since the second world war, governments and ideologies in the west have remained fairly centred, but the rise of nationalism has had an accompanying cultural shift. With the rise of woke culture, and the alternative offered by figures like Trump, the cultural divide is becoming ever more polarising. This cannot continue for long – at some point one side must win. And when this happens to countries all across the world, they radicalise and fall into war. But the world is different to what it once was, both economically and technologically, so war is taking a new turn: one of shadow operations and informal battles.

The Rise of Shadow Operations and Non-Formal Warfare

Geopolitical tensions are rising, further escalation is inevitable, and war is returning. But not in the usual sense. War, in the traditional sense, will likely continue, as we have already seen in both the Russia-Ukraine and the Gaza situations, but, generally, it will be greatly changed. What is the new form of warfare? It is economic, with battles fought with trade and cyber warfare. In terms of trade, the 2018-2020 US-China Trade War was an early example of this, with tit-for-tat tariffs being run for the last two years of Trump’s first presidency. Yet this was only the beginning, and with the second term of Trump, protectionism and rising tensions will fuel ever greater trade wars – all across the world and set to stay in action for much longer than two years. Trump has already begun tariffing countries all across the world and this will undoubtedly spark protectionist reactions, fueling disruptions to our complex, albeit fragile, supply chains and global economies. Of course, this will only fuel greater nationalism throughout the world, reducing global trade and morphing it into the new theatre of war. Yet this is not the only new arena emerging, as our ever greater reliance on software is kindling its own realm of warfare.

As we investigated in the last article, our economies are becoming ever more reliant on software, with almost everything we do making use of it. Yet this carries with it many concerns and insecurities, with hacking and cyberattacks on the rise worldwide. Countries all across the world are investing in hacking operations, and stealing all sorts of data from their enemies. However, unlike trade wars, this fits more in the realm of intelligence than it does in war. By hacking into other governments software systems, countries can gain control over important systems, as well as gather vital data, which can be used in international strategy, as well as blackmail. For example, hacking into opposing government software allows the hackers to intelligently disrupt their enemies supply chains and trade, giving them the upper hand. On the whole, with greater reliance on software comes greater vulnerabilities, and hacking is becoming the key to modern intelligence.

War, in some form or another, has been present in our world for millennia (even hundreds of thousands including primitive “war”), and it's not going away. It is evolving. Nationalism and protectionism is on the rise, significantly, and trade is becoming the new theatre of war, with cyberattacks as much of the key to its success. All in all, geopolitical relations are fracturing, and war is becoming more shady – and much more focused on economic disruption. But what about our larger society, how will we perceive war? What is the cultural and social trajectory of war, and how will it evolve?

How do you see it? Comment your take👇

If you enjoyed this article and want to learn more about the changing geopolitical landscape, make sure to check out the articles below:

• Digital Privacy: Navigating a World of Ubiquitous Mass Surveillance

• The Evolution Of Military Technology: AI and Digitisation in Modern Warfare